No doubt about it, the last year was a rough one for many, but the good news is that it’s wrapping up. With 2010 just around the corner, it seems a good time to make some predictions for what I think we can expect over the next year. I think it will be a very positive year.

Tourism
I think tourism will continue to grow off of a very low base in 2009. The world economy and local instability earlier in the year have made this an attractive season for booking inexpensive trips to Thailand. I think the mix of tourism will change dramatically – Asians, while always a big factor previous, will become the primary tourists of Thailand. And then towards the end of the year and as their economy recovers and oil prices rise, Russians will be the biggest demographic outside of Asians to visit, followed by the usual groups of British, Germans, French, Americans, etc. We’re seeing places like Phuket and Chiang Mai becoming additional regional hubs for Air Asia, which are bringing in more Asian tourists. I think this will only continue to grow over the next year.

Real Estate
Real estate prices will begin climbing and will continue to climb over the next two to three years based on the stability of the government. We have room to recover – since the 2006 coup, prices have not moved very much. And when the crash happened throughout the rest of the world, Thailand didn’t really move downwards since we hadn’t really participated in a huge upward swell experienced in other parts of the world (for the reasons I’ve gone into before – events over the past decade, both natural and manmade, that seem to cap Thailand’s growth).

But now that the rest of the world is in a recovery phase, Thailand can resume growing because of the stability that’s slowly coming into the marketplace. So, you will see price increases based on demand, and also, you’ll see price increases on commodities because of a weak dollar.

The Baht
Asia will only continue to grow stronger in the world economy. The IMF has just recently called for Asian countries to make their currencies stronger because they are undervalued. And so along with the weakness of the dollar, the Chinese yuan will become stronger, which automatically raises the evaluation of all regional currencies. So I predict that the baht will continue to gain strength over the next year.

Economy
All of Asia, starting with China, Japan, the Russian Federation, and then onto the rest of the region, including Thailand, will embrace consumerism, where these countries will begin the shift from exporting to importing. 2010 will the beginning of this shift. What kind of goods? Construction, from small to big: you can see the

Thai government has strong desires to increase the infrastructure here, such as rail projects like more BTS and MRT, improving the national railroad, and even reaching beyond to China. Recently, there’s been a study going on for a high-speed rail line, starting with a line between Bangkok and Rayong. These are all examples of projects that will have Thailand importing more goods to build this infrastructure.

People’s incomes will grow in 2010, and Thailand’s automobile industry will continue to grow here as people look to buy even more cars over the next year.

I think that you will see that as Asia grows, Bangkok and the Eastern Seaboard will become very important as a logistical services hub to process and distribute goods throughout the region. Also, I see Bangkok growing significantly as an international corporate hub because of its geography, sitting between India and China, and the high costs of other Asian cities, like Hong Kong and Singapore. While rising, the costs for office space and housing are still relatively inexpensive and will prove attractive to these companies looking for cheaper regional hubs. As an example of this, Toyota wants to move its regional headquarters out of Singapore and has asked the BOI for some tax accommodations to entice a move to Bangkok.

Foreign investment will be continue to be good in Thai industries, such as automobiles and manufacturing of electronic components. There has been some – albeit slow – movement on the deregulation of financial services, but it is happening.

Government
I believe there will be an election in 2010, and I believe the Democrats are going to win and stay in power in 2010.

Left on its own, I do think that the government has more on its plate than it can to worry about foreign business and its interests here at this point. But, ASEAN’s timelines to have similar laws (land ownership, leases, etc.) throughout the region may force Thailand to follow suit to accommodate foreign investing more positively. The question is when, so I’m not sure if it will happen by the end of 2010 or not. But, I think it will happen over the next five years.

Thailand is resilient. I have been here fourteen years, and the country keeps bouncing back from all the down points. It’s only been a year since the airport takeover, and while a big deal for a time, it’s a faint blip on the radar now. People want to come here to Thailand. Winter has come to the West, and Thailand is a very reasonable and attractive place to visit. The bookings are back up. As the world recovers, Thailand will too. It remains a destination that people will want to come to.

Thailand will be back in 2010.